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Before We Begin
Complete this before the scenario starts — no right answers
Spend 5–10 minutes with these questions before the scenario begins. Write what you actually think. There is no right answer — that's the point.
1Think of a time you had to make a decision without enough information. What did you do — and how did it turn out?
BuildThere's no wrong answer. Just describe what you actually did.
2What makes a decision "good" — the outcome, or the reasoning behind it?
BuildIf you make a careful, thoughtful choice and it turns out badly — was it a bad decision?
StretchWhat's the difference between a lucky decision and a good one?
3What is one personal tendency — a habit of mind — that you think might affect how you handle this scenario?
BuildExamples: "I act fast," "I overthink," "I second-guess myself once I've decided."
Student Workspace
1Decision Set 1
Start Scene — Disorientation
Decision Set 1 of 5
Start Scene
Choose your first move — then explain your reasoningYour eyes open slowly. The sky above you is pale orange — late afternoon. Your head aches and your mouth is dry. You don't know how you got here.
You're lying on rough, rocky ground. The terrain is arid — patches of scrubby brush, reddish stone, and cracked earth. No road, no building, no sign of another person. Your phone shows no signal.
You have: half a bottle of water (~300ml), a flashlight (battery life unknown), a metal mirror (handheld), and an empty backpack.
Then you hear it — a sound, distant, rhythmic, repeating. It could be water, a machine, or an animal. You cannot tell from here. You have about two hours of daylight left.
You're lying on rough, rocky ground. The terrain is arid — patches of scrubby brush, reddish stone, and cracked earth. No road, no building, no sign of another person. Your phone shows no signal.
You have: half a bottle of water (~300ml), a flashlight (battery life unknown), a metal mirror (handheld), and an empty backpack.
Then you hear it — a sound, distant, rhythmic, repeating. It could be water, a machine, or an animal. You cannot tell from here. You have about two hours of daylight left.
Choose your first move
A
Stay putConserve energy. Wait and see if anyone comes.
B
Move toward the soundIt might be water. It might be people.
C
Climb to high groundGet a view of the terrain before committing.
D
Go downhillWater and people tend to be at lower elevations.
Explain your reasoning — what made this the right call?
BuildWhat information from the scenario led you to that choice?
StretchWhat are you assuming that you haven't said out loud yet?
Make your choice and write your reasoning above — then ask your facilitator for the code to continue to Decision Set 2.
Complete your choice and reasoning to unlock this area.
✓ Decision Set 2 unlocked — click it in the sidebar to continue
Student Workspace
2Decision Set 2
Nightfall — Shelter vs. Signals
Decision Set 2 of 5
Nightfall
Darkness is coming — what do you prioritize?The sky is shifting from orange to deep purple. You have maybe 30 minutes of useful light left. You've moved — or stayed — and now you're facing the night with whatever you decided in Set 1.
You find a shallow rocky overhang — it's not ideal shelter, but it would block wind. Using the mirror to signal is still possible while there's light, but that window is closing fast. Your water is now down to a few sips.
You find a shallow rocky overhang — it's not ideal shelter, but it would block wind. Using the mirror to signal is still possible while there's light, but that window is closing fast. Your water is now down to a few sips.
How do you use your remaining light?
A
Spend it on signalingUse the mirror while you still can.
B
Secure shelter firstSurvive the night, then signal in the morning.
C
Keep movingUse what's left of the light to cover more ground.
D
Split your effortSignal briefly, then get to shelter. Try both.
What trade-off did you just make — and why was it worth it?
BuildWhat did you give up by making this choice? Name it.
StretchHow does scarcity — running out of time, water, light — change how you reason?
Make your choice and write your reasoning above — then ask your facilitator for the code to continue to Decision Set 3.
Complete your choice and reasoning to unlock this area.
✓ Decision Set 3 unlocked — click it in the sidebar to continue
Student Workspace
3Decision Set 3
New Information — Update or Stay the Course?
Decision Set 3 of 5
New Information
Something changes — how does it change your plan?You've made it through the night. First light is coming. Your water is gone.
As you scan the terrain, you notice something you missed yesterday: a cluster of green vegetation in a dry ravine about a half mile away. Green plants in arid terrain usually mean water nearby. But to get there, you'd move away from the place anyone searching might look first.
As you scan the terrain, you notice something you missed yesterday: a cluster of green vegetation in a dry ravine about a half mile away. Green plants in arid terrain usually mean water nearby. But to get there, you'd move away from the place anyone searching might look first.
Do you move toward the vegetation?
A
Go immediatelyWater is a survival priority. Move now.
B
Signal first, then goSpend an hour signaling. Then move for water.
C
Stay putYou're more likely to be found here.
D
Leave a marker and goMark your position, then move for water.
When new information arrived, did your plan change — and should it have?
BuildWhat new information changed your thinking? What stayed the same?
StretchIs updating your plan a sign of good reasoning, or inconsistency?
Make your choice and write your reasoning above — then ask your facilitator for the code to continue to Decision Set 4.
Complete your choice and reasoning to unlock this area.
✓ Decision Set 4 unlocked — click it in the sidebar to continue
Student Workspace
4Decision Set 4
The Risk Calculation
Decision Set 4 of 5
The Risk Calculation
You must weigh one risk against anotherYou found water — a small seep in the ravine. You drink, refill your bottle, and feel clearer. You've been out here for roughly 36 hours.
From a high point, you can see two things: a road — probably a mile and a half away across open rocky terrain — and what looks like a search helicopter in the far distance. If you run for the road, you might reach help. But if the helicopter swings this way, you'll be harder to spot out in the open.
From a high point, you can see two things: a road — probably a mile and a half away across open rocky terrain — and what looks like a search helicopter in the far distance. If you run for the road, you might reach help. But if the helicopter swings this way, you'll be harder to spot out in the open.
What do you do?
A
Run for the roadCertainty over chance. Move toward the definite path.
B
Signal the helicopter firstUse the mirror. If it doesn't see you, then go.
C
Hold positionStay visible here in case the helicopter comes closer.
D
Move toward the road while signalingTry to do both simultaneously.
How did you weigh a certain option against a higher-reward, higher-risk one?
BuildWhat's the worst outcome of each option?
StretchAre you more afraid of acting and failing — or not acting and missing the chance?
Make your choice and write your reasoning above — then ask your facilitator for the code to continue to Decision Set 5.
Complete your choice and reasoning to unlock this area.
✓ Decision Set 5 unlocked — click it in the sidebar to continue
Student Workspace
5Decision Set 5
Final Scene — The Last Call
Decision Set 5 of 5
Final Call
This is the last decision — make it countYou're close. The road is in sight — maybe 400 meters away. But the terrain drops sharply. There are two routes: a shorter, steeper descent over loose shale, or a longer, safer path that loops around.
You're tired. Your ankle — if injured — is aching. The long route adds 30 minutes, but the short route risks a fall. You can hear, faintly, what might be a vehicle on the road.
You're tired. Your ankle — if injured — is aching. The long route adds 30 minutes, but the short route risks a fall. You can hear, faintly, what might be a vehicle on the road.
How do you cover the last stretch?
A
Take the short routeFaster. You've come this far — push through.
B
Take the long routeSlower but safer. Don't risk everything now.
C
Signal from hereYou can see the road. Use the mirror. Wait.
D
Scout both options firstSpend ten minutes assessing before committing.
Why this, why now — does your reasoning hold up?
BuildWhat information did you rely on most?
StretchHow has your reasoning changed across five decisions — and what does that tell you?
Make your choice and write your reasoning above — then ask your facilitator for the code to continue to Debrief.
Complete your choice and reasoning to unlock this area.
✓ Debrief unlocked — click it in the sidebar to continue
Student Workspace
Debrief
Written response — complete after the full scenario
Take your time here. These questions ask you to look backward — to examine the thinking you already did, not produce more of it.
1What assumption did you make at the very start that shaped everything after it?
BuildWhat was the first thing you decided to believe was true?
StretchWas that assumption based on evidence, or on what you hoped was true?
2At which decision point were you most uncertain? What made it hard?
BuildPick the moment when choosing felt hardest. What were you missing?
StretchName the specific knowledge gap. How did you decide to act anyway?
3When a variable card was introduced, did you update your plan or stick with it — and why?
BuildDid the new information change what you did?
StretchWere you updating based on evidence, or anchoring to your original plan?
4Which of your five choices do you stand behind most confidently? Defend it.
BuildList three reasons it was the right call given what you knew.
StretchNow construct the strongest argument against that same choice.
5If you ran this scenario again with the same information, what would you do differently?
BuildName one specific decision you'd change.
StretchWhat does that tell you about the quality of your original reasoning?
6Did you make any decision primarily because it felt right — without being able to fully explain why?
BuildDescribe the moment. Was the feeling useful — or did it lead you astray?
StretchWhen is instinct a valid form of evidence? When is it a bias in disguise?
7Across all five decisions, what is the most important thing you noticed about how you think?
BuildFinish: "When I'm under pressure and don't have enough information, I tend to…"
StretchIs that tendency usually an asset, a liability, or both?
Student Workspace
From the Wilderness to Your World
The reasoning moves you just practiced work everywhere
For each reasoning move from the simulation, identify where the same thinking skill shows up in real life — then write your own example.
| Reasoning Move | Real-World Context | Your Example |
|---|---|---|
| Deciding with incomplete information | A doctor treats a patient before all test results are in. A voter chooses a candidate. | |
| Adapting when new information arrives | A scientist revises a hypothesis. A coach adjusts at halftime. | |
| Defending a choice under questioning | A student argues a thesis. An employee explains a recommendation. | |
| Weighing certain vs. uncertain outcomes | Choosing between a safe job and a risky opportunity. | |
| Recognizing your own reasoning patterns | Anyone making decisions about money, relationships, or risk. |